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July 14, 2006
On War Between Hamas, Hezbollah and Israel
I've been trying to formulate a coherent opinion on the latest outburst of violence in the Near East. For some, it seems all too easy to condemn one side or the other. Hamas and Hezbollah are different organizations. Their ultimate goals are different and the source of their support is somewhat different also. My first reaction is that the war with Hamas is likely a different war than the war with Hezbollah. But for all their differences, they are both dedicated to the elimination of Israel as a political entity in Palestine. Both see asymmetrical military tactics as the only way to meet that goal. Both have recently participated in the political arena; Hamas with great success within the Palestine Authority and Hezbollah with more limited success in Lebanon. I cannot help but believe that Hamas' success was due in part to Israel's emasculation of the PLO. Both Hamas and Hezbollah won their rolls in their respective governments through the electoral process and therefore both have achieved a certain level of acceptability. But at the end of the day, both are terrorist organizations that participate in the political arena as a matter of expedient rather than as a legitimate process in itself.
On the other hand, Israel in not in the same position it was in during the first several decades of its existence. Its surrounding neighbors are no longer capable of a fatal blow. Some previous neighbors have even more or less positive relations with Israel. It is interesting that as of this writing no Arab or Muslim state has done any significant saber rattling with regard to Israel's current military activity. Iraq has made as many negative noises as any. Some of their neighbors have even sounded statesmanlike. As the Khaleej Times reports,
In a significant move, Saudi Arabia, the Arab world’s political heavyweight and economic powerhouse, accused Hezbollah guerrillas - without naming them - of “uncalculated adventures” that could precipitate a new Middle East crisis.A Saudi official quoted by the state Saudi Press Agency said the Lebanese Hezbollah’s brazen capture of two Israeli soldiers was not legitimate.
The kingdom “clearly announces that there has to be a differentiation between legitimate resistance (to Israel) and uncalculated adventures.”
This statement prompted Juan Cole to refer to Wahhabi Saudi Arabia as one of "the adults in all this." The other adult cited by Cole was "Condi Rice called on the Israelis to exercise restraint in their response in Lebanon." Too bad, she's not getting any real support from the President.
While I think a reaction from Israel was justified and perhaps necessary, I find it hard to believe that their reaction was, as is said, proportional. And their past actions might have given at least Hamas real hope that a prisoner swap was possible. Hezbollah, on the other hand, certainly opened a second front with some other motivations. But I'm not at all sure what they were. Perhaps they just didn't like Hamas getting all the attention. Perhaps they simply miscalculated.
Now this is a long windup to send you somewhere else, but I think Publiu at Legal Fiction has said what I would like to say, but has said it better. Unlike Publiu, I did grow up during the cold war but that does keep me from agreeing with him.
And simply put, Israel will never come to terms with its neighbors (nor its territories) using conventional military means. I haven’t the slightest clue how to make it happen, but the answer has to be political and has to begin with an acceptable resolution resulting in a Palestinian state. Until that situation is resolved, nothing will be resolved. Of course, non-Jewish armies aren’t going to be marching into Tel Aviv anytime soon, but the growing non-Jewish population will make life pretty miserable for Israelis for years to come if things don’t change. Israel would be wise to attempt to resolve these issues from its current position of superiority.Anyway, the problem with the current demographic trends is that if generation after generation grows up hating Israel, Israel will lose in the end unless some part of the current dynamic changes. We should do everything we can to prevent it, but math wins in the end.
Thus, other than nuclear terrorism, the true existential threat to Israel is the fostering of hatred by anti-Israel groups and nations. They believe that if they feed the hatred, time and birth rates will run their course. And so that’s the threat — that no peace will come. That no political deal will be executed.
Go read all of Publiu's post and Juan Cole's also.
Posted by DuaneSmith at July 14, 2006 07:42 PM | Read more on Current Events |
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Comments
I do not believe there will be peace for Israel or the Palestinians until they all come to terms with the Lord. All must recognize Jesus as the Son of God. Check out what it says in the Bible. Then see what you think about all the goings on in the Eastern countries.
Posted by: junebug0244 at July 26, 2006 11:07 AM
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