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August 23, 2006
Evidence, Who Needs Any Evidence
Two things that greatly irritate me came together with a thud on this evening's local news: the JonBenet extravaganza and online opinion polls. Here is the online poll question KCBS-TV asked of its viewers.
If John Mark Karr Killed JonBenet, Do You Think He Acted Alone?Yes -
No -
I'm waiting for the evidence -
They reported the results on the evening news.
Guess what. The majority of people who took this poll didn't need any evidence to form an opinion. Of course, it is possible that the majority had researched this issue and had all the evidence they needed, but I doubt it. My "opinion" is that they had a feel for the answer based on various things they may have heard but truthfully they had no real evidence at all.
Now I do think there is news in this. But it has nothing to do with John Mark Karr or JonBenet Ramsey and everything to do with how many of us think about small issues, overblown issues and issues of great importance. We tend to form opinions without evidence and then read the evidence in the light of our opinions. This may be natural enough. But we also often think we don't need any evidence to form or maintain these opinions.
If you are wondering here's the breakdown of the answers as of 7:12 PM this evening.Yes - 39%
No - 19%
I'm waiting for the evidence - 43%
Perhaps I should be happy the waiting for evidence got a plurality. But I can't help thinking it should have gotten a very significant majority.
For a few years, Shirley and I had a two person market research company. We studied sales channel activity for a limited set of high-tech consumer produces and sold very detailed studies to manufacturers. As part of promoting our business, we occasionally participated in seminars and panel discussions. I remember once, during the Q and A following a spirited talk on the relationship between laser printer features and retail costs, someone in the audience asked me what I thought of pricing trends in the digital camera market. We didn't study that market, so I said, "We don't study that market so I'm not sure my opinion is worth anything." The questioner persisted. I then said, "I'll be happy to provide a pure opinion unencumbered by knowledge or thought." All my fellow panel members laughed, as did about half the audience, but the questioner still persisted. Luckily the audience and I were saved when the panel chair moved on to the next question. That was the first time that I realized that there were people out there who are looking for nothing more than an opinion. That it is uninformed makes not the slightest difference. In fact, they seem happier with a uniformed opinion than an informed one.
Now this is not quite the same thing as the phenomenon seen in the poll. But, seeking an uninformed opinion and offering an uninformed opinion appears to me to be two sides of the same coin.
The popularity of these online polls is driven by the "all I want is an opinion" factor coupled with the "I want to express my uninformed opinion" factor. And what you get is results where fewer than 50% of the participants give a hoot about evidence, even when the option to wait for more evidence is built into the question.
Posted by Duane Smith at August 23, 2006 8:11 PM | Read more on Current Events |
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