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January 13, 2007
Confusing Current Facts With Feared Future Results
In Secretary of Defense Roberts Gates' opening statement to the Senate Arms Services Committee yesterday he listed what he saw as five negative consequences of "failure" in Iraq. Senator Jim Webb, in his own statement prior to questioning Gates noted some of the realities concerning these five negative consequences. I thought it worth spelling all this out in bullet item form while adding my own spin.
Five supposed consequences of pulling out of Iraq and the facts of the matter:
- Spread of violence "outside its borders and draw other states into a regional conflagration." - this is, of course, a major concern but the current sectarian violence in Iraq is directly related to our invasion. While he managed the deep-seated sectarian animosities by often brutal means, Saddam did manage it. The presence of the US has exacerbated the problem and brought it out in the open and increased the concerns of Turkey and Saudi Arabia while strengthening Iran.
- "An emboldening and strengthened Iran" - this is a current fact of the matter that was not so prior to the invasion and will persist whether or not we pull out. This might have happen anyway but it is a fact now. Not something that might happen if we pull out.
- Provide "a safehaven and base of operations for jihadist . . ." - there were no meaningful jihadist activities in Iraq before the invasion. If it turns out that Iraq becomes a safehaven and base for jihadist it is the result of the invasion and will not be the result of a pullout.
- "A humiliating defeat in the overall campaign against violent extremism worldwide" - how can the US suffer a "humiliating defeat in the overall campaign against violent extremism worldwide" when this war never had anything at all to do with violent extremism? It certainly never had anything to do with Islamic jihad. We seemed to make it through a "humiliating defeat" in Vietnam without much real pain and what the Vietnam War and the Iraq war have in common is that neither was justified on any moral grounds. By the way, this is about the only thing I think these two wars have in common.
- "An undermining of the credibility of the United States" - this is directly related to nearly worldwide public perceptions following the invasion of Iraq and to ongoing operations in Iraq and will continue for a long time whether we stay or leave.
I don't intend my comments to be a justification for a precipitous pullout from Iraq. Only a few favor such a thing and I am not one of them. However, worry about these items cannot be a reasonable justification for staying or "surging." If they were, they would have been an even better argument for not going in in the first place.
One of the more vexing problems in attempting to understand the Administration's position on anything, particularly Iraq and the war against the jihadists, is the shocking set of anachronisms that permeate almost every aspect of their explanations of these positions. The present is confused with the future or the past in ways that always obscure the real situation.
You can read a partial transcript of Senator Webb's actual remarks on Daily Kos and a full transcript of Gates' opening statement on the Senate Arms Services Committee website.
Posted by Duane Smith at January 13, 2007 6:24 PM | Read more on Current Events |
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