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January 2, 2007
I Don't Believe It
But I do believe something else. According to an Associated Press-AOL News poll "25 percent [of Americans] anticipate the second coming of Jesus Christ" in 2007. I just don't believe it. If 25% of American said they anticipated the second coming of Christ in their lifetime, I would consider it believable if more than crazy. But 25% of Americans really thinking it will happen this year! No way.
I wish AP/AOL had published the actual question. Without seeing that it is really impossible to guess what question the respondents thought they were answering. But let's assume it was something simple like, "Do you anticipate that second coming of Jesus Christ in 2007?" We are also not told if the respondents were given choices like "I am very certain," "I am certain," "I think it possible" and so forth. Again, let's assume they were not or that relatively high degrees of certainty were lumped together to get the 25% number.
It's not that I don't believe that 25% of the sample population answered the way they are reported to have answered or that 25% of the total American population would answer it that way. It's that I don't believe that they actually really, truly, honest to goodness, anticipate that the second coming of Jesus Christ will occur in 2007. Rather I think a corollary to Pascal's wager is at work in the answers to many polls that ask questions about religious beliefs. Give the safest answer. Give the answer that shows the highest degree of faith. If you answer this question in the affirmative and Jesus returns in, say 2009, rather than 2007, it is probably OK. Your error will likely go down as being "faithful." But if you say "no," no matter how cautiously, and then Christ does show up in 2007, lookout! Don't get me wrong, I'm not claiming that the answers are as well thought out as I may be making them sound. They are more reflective, "faith based" answers than well-reasoned answers. It is also possible that "faith based" answers to questions about the second coming are expressed as hope rather than probability. In which case 25% of the American population may hope that the second coming occurs this year.
Herein lies one of the major problems with faith of any kind, there is a built in bias toward the absurd.
Posted by Duane Smith at January 2, 2007 9:16 AM | Read more on Religion |
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Comments
Happy New Year
There might also be a conflation of "hope for" and "anticipate." I suppose in principle, all Christians should hope for, and live in the anticipation of the return of Christ.
Of course, scripture argues that they can not know that this will happen at any particular time. I have not looked for the data, but all the Millerite churches, and most "non-denomination" evangelics would responed with a yes to almost any impending "return" question. What were the sales numbers for the Left Behind series?
Posted by: Gary Hurd at January 2, 2007 11:52 AM
He is returning in 2008.
Posted by: Aydin at January 3, 2007 7:54 AM
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