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March 4, 2007

Math and the Study of the Ancient Near East

Two recent works reminded me of the importance of mathematics in the study of the ancient Near East. First was the use of statistics to try to define the probability that the names inscribed on the Talpiyot tomb ossuaries represented the same individuals as those associated with Jesus, including Jesus himself, in the Christian New Testament. The second was the informal use of complexity theory in Zevit's The Religions of Ancient Israel.

I've written about the use of mathematical concepts before, particularly the use of informal Bayes' theorem to assess evidence for or against some hypothesis concerning ancient history. If you have a really good memory, you may remember that I once wrote on the Vaughn and Dobler paper, "A Provenance Study of Hebrew Seals and Seal Impressions: a Statistical Analysis" which relies heavily on mathematics to make its point. I'm sure there were other times that I considered mathematics and the Near East but I can't think of them now.

The two examples cited the first paragraph above represent somewhat less theoretical attempts to employ mathematics or mathematical models than my own discussion of Bayes' theorem. In the case of the first example, Andrey Feuerverger describes how he arrived at his statistical assertion that there was a high probability that a positive relationship existed between the names on the ossuaries and various names in the Christian New Testament. Perhaps the most important part of his discussion is the listing of his assumptions; he notes that two of these assumptions, that "Marianemou e Mara" equals Mary Magdalene and the "Yehuda son of Yeshua ossuary does not invalidate the find," are "contentious." I also wonder about the two other of his assumptions, but this is not the place to enter into that discussion. It would have been helpful if Feuerverger had shown a sensitivity analysis reflecting how the results would vary under other assumptions, such as "Marianemou e Mara" not being Mary Magdalene. I take this as a more likely assumption than that she was. However, the point I want to make is that more mathematical acumen is required even to understand the issues involved much less address them than is common among Biblical scholars. By the way, Mark Goodacre has made a very good attempt, which I take to be largely correct, at interacting with the statistical material. Kudos to Mark.

The second example is something I just ran across in Zevit's book, 646ff: the informal use of complexity theory as a tool to understand the social history of Israel and Judah in the Iron I and II periods. While Zevit, 646, n. 67, provides a brief tutorial and references to import works in the field of complexity theory, it would be very difficult to understand fully what he is getting at when he says, 648, for example, "I maintain that Israelite tribalism comprised a subcritical system, while that of the monarchy and its institutions an essentially supercritical one" without a basic grounding in complexity theory and how it differs from, say, chaos theory. This is true even in the context of his confession, 646, n. 67 "My use of ideas stemming from complexity studies is therefore unashamedly eclectic. . . "

There was a time when students who were interested in science but lacked mathematical inclinations pursued biology. Such a time has long gone. Mathematics is now an essential and ubiquitous tool in almost every sub-discipline of biology. We haven't reach that point as yet in Near Eastern studies or history in general, but we are on the way. The fact that many of the mathematical concepts must be used informally means that the risk of misuse is very high. For that reason alone, scholars must make sure that they have the proper theoretical basis to deal with those concepts they encounter in their reading and those they will, no doubt, be called upon to use.

Thanks to the nonmathematical Jim West for the reference to Feuerverger's web page.

Reference:

Posted by Duane Smith at March 4, 2007 8:10 PM | Read more on Archaeology |

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