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July 15, 2007
Foreign Fighters in Iraq
Based in data provided by "a senior US military officer" and "Iraqi lawmakers" the Los Angeles Times reported the follow breakdown of foreign fighters in Iraq:
- 45% from Saudi Arabia
- 15% from Syria and Lebanon
- 10% from North Africa.
Juan Cole provides the ethnic distribution: almost all Sunni.
The Times article does not say what percentage of the foreign fighters are Iranian but impression is that it is fewer than 10%.
Some other interesting numbers from the Times article and Juan Cole's observations on it:
- Number of foreign fighters in U.S. detention facilities in Iraq - 135
- ~50% of these are Saudis
- Juan Cole says there are a total of 19,000 insurgents being held by the US military. Foreign fighters make about 0.7% of these detainees. It is reasonable to assume that the percentage of foreign fighters still in the field is about the same.
- Most of the Saudi fighters seem to come into Iraq through Syria
- Al Qaeda in Iraq and affiliates have between 5,000 to 10,000 fighters
- Iraqi's make up the majority of Al Qaeda in Iraq membership
Now, I don't know the accuracy of these numbers. But, they are the most complete numbers I've seen. Until better ones are available, I think these can be used to test administration statements about the role of foreign fighters in general and Iran fighters in particular. I hope these numbers set the stage of the media to demand specific numbers when the administration makes claims such as "And the majority of the major bombings that are taking place in Iraq are as a result of foreigners who have made their way in Iraq through Syria." What percentage and what is their country of origin?
Just to be clear, I am not beating a drum for war with Saudi Arabia or with anyone else. I'm just asking for enough hard information to take a more fully informed political position on Iraq. On the other hand, these numbers are very supportive of what I already believed. Iraq is in the midst of a civil war for which our immoral invasion was the predictable catalyst. Whatever foreign fighters there may be are numerically irrelevant except as they gain valuable experience to use on some other battlefield. The real action in the "war on terror" is not and never was in Iraq.
Update: July 16, 2007
Juan Cole has posted a report on foreign fighters held by the Iraqis themselves. The numbers are different but still do not support there being a significant numbers of Iranians fighting in Iraq.
- 11 Jordanians
- 64 Syrians
- 9 Saudis
- 2 Algerians
- 6 Moroccans
- 6 Yemenis
- 2 Libyans
- 57 Palestinians
- 284 Egyptians
- 13 Sudanese
- 1 Emiratis
- 3 Lebanese
- 1 Somali
It's not clear why the mix is so different between the two prisoner populations.
Posted by Duane Smith at July 15, 2007 7:04 PM | Read more on Current Events |
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