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July 11, 2007
Possibility, Probability, Proof and a Reed Boat
I often complain about the misuse of the word "proof." I like to remind people that logicians and mathematicians have proofs and everyone else has (or doesn't have) evidence that points to a probability. But every so often, I discover an even worse error, the error of confusing or trying to confuse a mere possibility with proof. For example, this headline is over an ATF story,
Team to prove Stone Age man crossed Atlantic against the winds
And this summary is below the headline,
A team of explorers and a 10-ton reed boat aim to re-write the history books by sailing from America to Europe to prove that trans-Atlantic trade links existed as long ago as the Stone Age.
And the story isn't much better.
Dominique Goerlitz and his crew are attempting to sail from New York to southern Spain in a reed boat with a 60 square-meter linen sail. He wants to show that it is possible to sail against the winds in a boat that is something like one an ancient people might have built.
"The boat is lashed tightly together. It can't break in half, and it can't capsize," says Goerlitz of the design, based on his painstaking observation of cave drawings in Spain and France, and akin to the vessels built by the ancient Egyptians.
I don't know how closely his twin hulled design resembles those cave drawings or ancient Egyptian reed boats. But this is beside the point. Goerlitz is attempting to cross the Atlantic in a boat built of material that was available to ancient peoples using methods that were available to them.
According to the ATF story, Goerlitz made the following statement.
I hope to collect the ultimate evidence that advanced navigation took place during pre-historic times. [emphasis added]
And what exactly will the evidence be? At best he will be able to demonstrate the possibility of sailing east across the Atlantic from America to Europe in a primitive sailing boat. But he and his brave crew will demonstrate nothing more.
Another interesting thing about this experiment is that, like many others, it is highly asymmetrical. Success with demonstrate the possibility of such a crossing. But failure will not demonstrate the impossibility. Don't get me wrong, I think much experimental archaeology is very useful. This voyage may be useful. My only problem is the greatly exaggerated claim that tends to reinforce a popular error.
Posted by Duane Smith at July 11, 2007 10:01 AM | Read more on Archaeology |
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Posted by: Iyov at July 11, 2007 1:09 PM
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