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June 8, 2009
Statistical Literacy - Sometimes A Life Or Death Matter
We may long for a world of certainties but we live in a world of probabilities. Gerd Gigerenzer and four others wrote "Knowing Your Chances: What Health Stats Really Mean" for Scientific American.
In 1938 in World Brain (Methuen & Co.), English writer H. G. Wells predicted that for an educated citizenship in a modern democracy, statis¬tical thinking would be as indispensable as reading and writing. At the beginning of the 21st century, nearly everyone living in an industrial society has been taught reading and writing but not statistical thinking—how to understand information about risks and uncertainties in our technological world. That lack of understanding is shared by many ¬physicians, journalists and politicians such as Giuliani who, as a result, spread misconceptions to the public.[long, multipage snip]
Today the U.S. mathematics curriculum centers on the mathematics of certainty—from arithmetic to calculus—and instruction in probability and statistics occurs too late. As H. G. Wells suggested, statistics should be taught as early as reading and writing. Indeed, the U.S. National Council of Teachers of Mathematics has been pushing educators for years to begin instruction in statistics and probability in primary school. If children learned to deal with an uncertain world in a playful way, much of the collective statistical illiteracy would be history.
[shorter snip]
Statistical literacy can change lives, helping individuals make better personal choices, recognize misleading advertisements and public service messages, and develop a more relaxed attitude toward their health. The dream of statistical literacy embodies the Enlightenment ideal of people’s emergence from their self-imposed immaturity. In Immanuel Kant’s words, "Dare to know!"
The article provides several rather shocking examples of the results of statistical illiteracy in medicine. But the need to be statistical literate extends to nearly every aspect of modern life. As I said at the beginning, we may long for a world of certainties but we live in a world of probabilities.
Posted by Duane Smith at June 8, 2009 8:43 AM | Read more on Odds and Ends |
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